Launch is day one. Growth is everything after.

Real talk: ~78% accurate at 12 months based on tracked client data. SEO has too many variables for perfection.

What matters is staying within ~20% of your forecast—that's considered accurate in the industry.

Month 3 forecasts are usually too early to be confident. By month 6 you can see real trends. Month 9 gets clearer. Month 12 is where the model becomes reliably predictive.

We track monthly and adjust. When actual results differ by more than ~20%, we identify why and update the forecast forward.

Three reasons:

Optimism bias. Hidden methodology. Ignoring reality.

We show conservative, likely, and optimistic scenarios, explain the math, and account for what actually happens (competition + updates + variance).

Minimum 12 months of real performance history, plus your current baseline and the plan you will actually execute.

• Organic traffic trends
• How fast rankings improved
• Content indexing rates
• Backlink acquisition pace
• Current rankings (positions 1–50, not just “page 1”)
• Content inventory (how many pieces exist)
• Domain authority + backlink profile
• Technical health
• Publishing targets, link targets, technical improvements, budget

Because one number is a lie. Three scenarios set expectations and make the methodology transparent.

• Conservative (70% confidence): ~35–45% traffic growth
• Likely (50% confidence): ~60–80% traffic growth
• Optimistic (30% confidence): ~100–130% traffic growth

Publishing more = faster growth, but not linearly. SEO compounds because indexing + ranking take time. Month 6 is not half of month 12.

• 10 articles/month: ~+30% month 6, ~+65% month 12
• 20 articles/month: ~+50% month 6, ~+110% month 12
• 5 articles/month: ~+15% month 6, ~+35% month 12

No. Anyone who guarantees SEO outcomes is lying.

What we do guarantee: honest forecasting, monthly tracking, and adjustments when reality differs from plan.

We estimate keyword ranking probability instead of promising rankings.

We track it monthly: traffic vs forecast, rankings vs predicted, content shipped vs plan, links acquired vs target.

If you're off by more than ~20%, we identify why (algorithm, competition, underperforming content, slowed execution) and adjust the forecast forward.

Credibility lives in calibration, not bravado.

Each target keyword gets a baseline ranking probability, then we adjust it based on your reality:

• Domain authority comparison (stronger than competitors: +10%, weaker: -10%)
• Content quality advantage (better than what ranks: +15%)
• Backlink pace (faster than competitors: +10%, slower: -10%)

Most agencies give one optimistic number, hide the method, never track results, and disappear when wrong.

We show three scenarios, explain the methodology, track monthly, and update the forecast when reality changes.

Monthly. We compare actuals to the forecast, document variance, and recalibrate forward.

Yes—because it turns vague “SEO progress” into a roadmap with expectations, budget justification, objective tracking, and early adjustment.

Anyone doing SEO who has 12+ months of historical data, wants realistic expectations, and plans to actually execute.

If you've been live for less than a year, we can plan and estimate, but we can't forecast accurately yet.